What is Regional Dynamics? It is an ongoing dynamics
Is it Evolving?
A Scenario There is uncertainty, power vacuum filled by radical actors, brutal violence in Syria, Libya
and Iraq, There is significant change in the region’s strategic landscape, reverberation of the Arab spring
created ripples in many parts of the world, weakening state structure and boosting sectarianism and
tribalism and there is manifestation of all kind of division
The situations will remain the same for a long time
Different Scenarios in Different Nations (Region in General)
WANA is like a Black hole
Why the alliances are dynamic
A divided GCC and endeavors for inclusion of others like Jordan and Morocco
Growing rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia – that was visible in Lebanon, Palestine , Iraq and
Syrian civil war where Qatar has dominated as regional hegemony.
Iranian Nuclear Deal- it has further alienated the Gulf nations and there is perception that Iran would the
region as bargain chip against the Monarch and fill the power vacuum. ( Iranian Problems existed for ten
years and technically for thirty years )
Shiite –Sunni Rivalry and Persian –Arab rivalry
Transformation of geopolitics is closely tied to the oil and discovery of shale gas is likely to have impact
on the region.
Rise of ISIS and non-state Actors
Rise of tribalism
Rise of Political Islam
Declining Role of US in the Region and Saudi suspicion of US and absence of any other power Saudi
could rely. American retrenchment from its long accepted role a the security guarantor of the region
Changing Nature of Alliances and Encampment
Movement of Ideas Spillover to India.
Post nuclear deal Iran to be more aggressive in the region.
Why West Asia a is Important for us and how the present scenario bring together and create a common
worldview on issues like terrorism
Worldview of the Region from Indian Perspective.
Libya very fertile and tempting for terrorism
Turkish approach to the evolution
Turkey and Iran are closer for year now
Turkey-Egypt cold war continues
Islamic Reform what Elsisse and Azhar clergy talked about?
MBH not faithful to te constitution and its people
Azhar played an important role and MBH is not only Islam and does not represent Islam
Egypt will never hit and cross the international norms to strike another Arab state
Egypt is making alliance under the Arab League.
In Yemen concern is national security and maritime blockade but working with Arab nations to stop
malicious design against Gulf-Aden- Babal-Mandab- Swiss Canal
Egypt asserting its heritage of leading political role and its intervention in Yemen because of national
security. Egypt wants its position back as a genuine player in the global politics
Egypt as a part of Arab league to protect gulf security where India and Egypt can come together
Egypt does not pursue the policy of sectarian and wants a solution to the Syrian and Libyan crisis
Sissi rescued Egypt form the situations of Libya and Syria
How Evolving Dynamics it is Impacting India:
First issue is sectarian –Rivalry between India and Iran-India has major chunk of Shiite
Second issue is the rise of Islamism- in India too there are Islamist movement who are aspiring
to be powerful and seek legitimacy.
Third issue is the rise of ISIS- There are reports that several coming and joining the ISIS and
there are reports of website in Urdu and vernacular languages.
The fourth issue is Oil-Energy Relations between Asia (India) and the Gulf – Gulf is
extremely critical for India because it is India’s largest socio-economic partner and main source
of its hydrocarbon n imports.
How does India look at West Asia and Indian wants a solution should come from the region
alone and a good luck.
India does not believe in sectarian policy as proved form the composition of the delegation but it
is apprehensive of the growing tension there.
Iran and GCC
The region is the most volatile region of the world and relations among them can only be
analyzed under the changing dynamics of the geostrategic environment and the political
contexts. The longest war of Iran and Iraq, Iraqi occupation of Kuwait and US occupation of Iraq
are some of the marking point of the gulf. The cumulative effects of these events induced a too
powerful vortex and embroiled the entire region into a perpetual conflict which is become more
complex with each passing day. The region has been transformed into a theatre of conflicts and
low intensity of intra and inters states war. The region has also been transformed into the battle
ground of the remnants of the cold war politics because of the involvement of the external
powers and the unfolding ideological and sectarian contestation and conflicts.
The predominant narratives on relationship between Iran and the Arab Gulf region states are
couched in polemical language of different and opposing civilization and nationalistic identity,
conflicting territorial claims, ideological rivalries and regional aspirations.
Arabs and Iranians (Persians), over the centuries, have viewed each other with suspicion,
distrust, and fear. Whereas Iranians have viewed themselves in terms of Iran’s ancient
civilization history, vast geographical terrains and large settled population and tended to derive a
sense of superiority towards their Arab neighbors, the Arabs have been influenced by Arab
nationalism and have disliked and distrusted their Persian neighbor.
Iran does not deal with the GCC as collective body of regional countries
Iran deals bilaterally
Since the emergence and consolidation of the modern state system in the region, Iran has
considered its own hegemony to be natural and inevitable, and the Gulf a “Persian Lake”. In
objectives terms, its population and land mass are immensely greater than those of any of the
Arab Gulf states, its economy more developed and diversified, its science and technology more
advanced , and its military more powerful.
Dynamics of Turkey—Saudi Arabia Relationship: Limits and Constraints
“New paradigm” is emerging to redefine and describe their relationship. This “new paradigm”
is based on the revisionist approach of history. This revisionist approach is motivating both the
sides in the process of self rediscovery as well as rediscovery of each other. To reinforce this so
called emerging “new paradigm”, there are literatures focusing the idea of the emergence of
“neo-Ottomanism”, revivalism of Islamic Ummah, ascendancy of political Islam geared to
establish caliphate system…etc
The AKP regime supposedly with roots in Islamic heritage and the current Arab Spring upsurge
has further reinforced this either real or imagined feeling of kinship between Arabs and Turks.
Turkish model is being talked as the model for the Arab world.
There are external and domestic factors which have provided new dynamics in Turkey’s foreign
policy orientation and therefore have cause greater stronger ties between Turkey and its
immediate Arab and the GCC states.